After the Revolution

In a flurry of acronyms, the U.S. and the U.K. supported Georgia at the U.N. this week in the Abkhazia dispute.

Russia withdrew trade sanctions against the breakaway republic last week.

The United States and Britain criticized the move, saying it opened up the possibility of weapons trade.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili will discuss the issue with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon next week in New York. 

The breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have already invited the whole gang to their international recognition party. (No RSVPs yet.)

But that doesn’t stop Russia from warning Georgia that what will really set the two provinces on an independence rampage is Georgia’s intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

According to an article from the BBC, Russia’s NATO ambassador has warned that Georgia’s joining the alliance would be the last straw.

Residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were excluded from Georgia’s recent national referendum regarding NATO membership, the ambassador pointed out.

It seems that the provinces that recently gave Putin’s favored presidential candidate 90 percent of their (somewhat dubiously obtained) votes would probably follow the Moscow line in opposing membership in the organization. 

The ambassador said:

“As soon as Georgia gets some kind of prospect from Washington of NATO membership, the next day the process of real secession of these two territories from Georgia will begin.”

The hunger strike [see previous post] Georgian opposition leaders promised last month, postponed due to lack of interest, is back on.

Five politicians announced today they would start their fast to protest the recent presidential election in Georgia.

According to an article from Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze compared the renewed protest to November demonstrations that brought the capital to a state of emergency:

“Today a new November begins in Georgia…This is going to be a permanent rally and it will last until we reach our goal. And this goal is elections, free elections.”

But the protests are nowhere near the scale of those that took place in 2007. 

According to an article in the Georgian Times, the hunger strikers are demanding:

• repeat presidential elections
• creating conditions for holding free and fair parliamentary elections
• the release of those arrested for protesting in November

Eight protesters have been released, but others remain behind bars.

Angry voters can register to join the hunger strike or attend a protest rally scheduled to coincide with a March 11 parliamentary session regarding the upcoming May parliamentary elections.

It seems Vladimir Putin was right. Then again, as illustrated by Russia’s recent presidential election, he’s not averse to stacking the cards to prove his point.

Yesterday the parliament of Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway republics, declared its independence to the international community.

The day before, Russia had announced it would lift trade restrictions to the province.

Wouldn’t you know it, that same day Georgia’s other breakaway republic, South Ossetia, also declared its independence.

The Russian Foreign Ministry’s explanation for the move does make some sense. Russia imposed trade sanctions in the first place in order to quash Abkhazia’s separatist aspirations in 1996.

But the restrictions seem to have had little effect. So why continue to block business?

Let’s look at some more recent news.

Putin said his reasoning for not recognizing the recently declared independence of Kosovo was that it might cause a ripple effect – encouraging other breakaway states to declare their independence. [see previous entry]

Now after last week’s events in Georgia, all he can say is: Told ya so.

Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia argued that Kosovo set a precedent for their independence.

So what if they needed a little encouragement?

Georgia’s foreign ministry said Russia’s withdrawal of sanctions would allow Putin to offer military assistance to the rebellious province, according to an article in the Georgian Times.

According to the foreign ministry:

“The move cannot be seen other than as a clear attempt to undermine Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity and a very dangerous provocation aimed at fueling tension in the conflict zone.” 

The speaker for Georgia’s parliament told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty that she saw the move as a step toward Russian annexation of Abkhazia.

Residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia already carry Russian passports, use Russian currency and even voted in Russia’s presidential election. Each gave about 90 percent of votes to Putin’s candidate, winner Dmitry Medvedev.

But beyond that, the Georgian speaker saw the timing of Russia’s lifting of trade sanctions as significant – this is happening right as NATO is debating whether or not to start Georgia on a path to membership.

Russia should not forget, however, that Georgia holds veto power over Russia’s possible future membership in the World Trade Organization. [see previous entry]

Throw that blanket back off; the second round of the Russia-Ukraine gas fights ended today.

But there is so much more to this than just a spat over a utility bill.

According to an article in the Financial Times:

[T]he Russians do not regard Ukraine as a serious independent country and the Ukrainians do not regard the Russians as trustworthy commercial counterparts…

It is about sovereignty, respect and a lack of transparency in dealing with a very large amount of money.

Also, let’s think about who’s got a stake in this. 

• Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s prime minister, made a fortune in the gas business. 
• Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president-elect who takes over for Vladimir Putin in May, is Gazprom’s chairman.

I love it. The BBC posted a 357-word guide to pronouncing two words: Dmitry Medvedev.

It’s a name that’s been tripping some high-power lips, as Medvedev just took Vladimir Putin’s place (in name, at least) as Russian president.

Not sure how to say it? See Hillary Clinton give it a try here.

The BBC’s recommendation:

DMEET-ri muhd-VYED-uhff; -uh as in the; -vy as in view; the final ‘v’ is devoiced so it sounds like ‘f’

The native Russian pronunciation is more like:

myid-VYED-yiff; -my as in mute; -vy as in view

Toss on another blanket; the gas fights are back.

State-owned Russian gas company Gazprom has cut gas supplies to Ukraine in half over the past two days.

Gazprom says Ukraine has not paid $1.5 billion in gas bills.

Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, says Ukraine has made most of the payments but can’t complete the rest because Russia and Ukraine’s intermediary gas trading company has yet to draw up the proper contracts.

On top of that, Ukraine’s gas company has accused Russia’s gas company of failing to pay some of its own bills.

According to Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister:

“Since December Russia’s Gazprom has not paid Naftogaz a kopeck for the transit of Russian gas.” 

In turn, the Russian company has accused the Ukrainian company of not drawing up the proper invoices requesting payment. 

Gazprom also cut gas supplies to Ukraine in 2006. At that point gas supplies to other European countries piped through Ukraine were also disrupted.

Ukraine has said its reserves will hold up for two weeks in mild weather. But after that, Gazprom’s actions are going to cause ripples throughout the West, according to an article posted on the Kiev Ukraine News Blog.

Most of the natural gas piped to Europe from Gazprom goes through Ukraine.

Moral of the story? Always ask for a receipt.

Last week I filmed a “How To” video at Argo Georgian Bakery on Devon Avenue in Chicago.

Devon is one of the most diverse stretches of road in the city. I stumbled upon the Georgian bakery amidst Russian bookstores, Indian beauty salons and kosher restaurants.

When traditional Georgian bread is baked, it is stuck to the side of a round oven called a “tuna.” Check out the video:

Today Georgia’s richest man, Badri Patarkatsishvili – who died under what were considered “suspicious” circumstances earlier this month – was laid to rest in Tbilisi to the applause of thousands of Georgians.

Patarkatsishvili was considered a “robber baron and philanthropist,” according to an article published by EurasiaNet.org. His wealth helped finance Georgia’s Rose Revolution.

The billionaire had been living in exile in England after being charged of plotting a coup in Georgia. Patarkatsishvili made his fortune in Russia during privatization after the fall of the Soviet Union and was wanted by authorities there as well.

The mix of dignitaries who saw him off included U.S. Ambassador to Georgia, John Tefft; a group of Israeli diplomats; and Georgian Orthodox Church Patriarch Ilia II. Also in attendance was the mayor of Tbilisi, who once called Patarkatsishvili “a devil.”

Patarkatsishvili is believed to have died of a heart attack on Feb. 13, though some still suspect he was bumped off a la Alexander Litvinenko, the KGB dissident who was murdered by radioactive poisoning in England in November 2006.

To see some great photos from Reuters of the mourning crowd, click here.

Recently headlines are starting to give me deja vu. 

Last week the electoral commission of Armenia declared Serzh Sarkisian, until then the country’s prime minister, winner of Armenia’s presidential election.

According to the count, Sarkisian won a couple of points over 50 percent of the vote, just enough to avoid a run-off. But many say the voting process was seriously flawed.

The Organization for Security & Co-operation in Europe, which observed the election, deemed it “mostly in line with international commitments,” though it stated that “significant challenges” remain, according to an article from EurasiaNet.org.

Sound familiar?

Almost the exact same thing happened in Georgia earlier this year when on Jan. 5 Georgia’s incumbent leader, Mikheil Saakashvili, won a second five-year term with 53.5 percent of the vote.

Observers reported all types of fraud, but the OSCE still deemed the election results acceptible [see previous post]. Georgians continue to protest, though the opposition’s earlier hunger strike threat has proved to be a bluff [see previous post].

Critics are starting to wonder what the point of all this monitoring is if the OSCE is going to keep giving passing grades after such shoddy performances.

One political party leader in Georgia accused OSCE election observers of showing up to the polls drunk.

The OSCE is the newest incarnation of the former Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, which was created in 1973. The name and the goals of the organization changed in 1994 in response to the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the U.S.S.R.

Here is how it describes itself:

With 56 States drawn from Europe, Central Asia and America, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is the world’s largest regional security organization, bringing comprehensive and co-operative security to a region that stretches from Vancouver to Vladivostok.

It offers a forum for political negotiations and decision-making in the fields of early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation, and puts the political will of the participating States into practice through its unique network of field missions.

The OSCE approach to security is comprehensive and co-operative: comprehensive in dealing with a wide range of security-related issues including arms control, preventive diplomacy, confidence- and security-building measures, human rights, democratization, election monitoring and economic and environmental security; co-operative in the sense that all OSCE participating States have equal status. Decisions are taken by consensus on a politically, but not legally binding basis.

The OSCE will observe Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, according to a press release on the OSCE Web site.